在南非约翰内斯堡,使用监督时间序列学习技术估计塑料垃圾的产生
Olusola Olaitan Ayeleru1,2, Lanre Ibrahim Fajimi1, Matthew Adah Onu1
1Centre for Nanoengineering and Advanced Material, University of Johannesburg, Doornfontein Campus, Johannesburg, 2028, South Africa.
Heliyon
|April 4, 2024
概括
这项研究预测南非约翰内斯堡的塑料废物产量,预计到2050年将达到6.7兆. 它强调了发展中国家需要更好的塑料废物管理战略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 废物管理 废物管理
- 预测 预测 预测 预测
背景情况:
- 关于发展中国家 (DCs) 塑料废物 (PW) 预测的研究有限.
- 现有的研究主要集中在陆地和海洋PW管理问题及其对环境和公共卫生的影响.
- 这项研究解决了DC城市地区PW发电预测建模方面的差距.
研究的目的:
- 预测未来三十年 (2021-2050年) 在南非约翰内斯堡市 (CoJ) 的塑料垃圾产量.
- 为了比较不同的时间序列模型对PW预测的有效性.
- 为了估计未来的塑料废弃物在CoJ中的组成.
主要方法:
- 使用了来自南非统计局 (StatsSA) 的历史数据.
- 采用了三个时间序列模型进行预测:指数式光滑 (ETS),人工神经网络 (ANN) 和高斯过程回归 (GPR).
- 使用确定系数 (R2) 评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 指数核GPR模型实现了最高的整体预测准确性 (R2 = 0.96).
- 在个人塑料废物类型估计方面,ANN表现出优异的性能 (R2 = 0.93).
- 预计2021年至2050年间,CoJ的PW总发电量约为6.7兆 (0.22兆/年).
结论:
- 在接下来的30年里,约翰内斯堡的塑料废物产量预计将大幅增加.
- 该研究为该地区制定有针对性的塑料废物管理战略提供了关键数据.
- 准确的预测模型对于发展中国家有效的环境规划和资源管理至关重要.
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