利用例行收集的程序数据,为纳米比亚的关键人口提供外推大小估计信息:小面积估计研究.
Talia Loeb1, Kalai Willis1, Frans Velishavo2
1Data for Implementation (Data.FI), Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States.
JMIR public health and surveillance
|April 4, 2024
概括
在纳米比亚使用小面积估计 (SAE) 和计划数据估计女性性工作者 (FSW) 和与男性发生性关系的男性 (MSM) 的规模,改善了艾滋病毒计划规划. 这些方法在缺乏直接数据的情况下提供了有价值的分国家级估计.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 估计女性性工作者 (FSW) 和与男性发生性关系的男性 (MSM) 等关键人口对于有效的艾滋病毒计划规划和资源分配至关重要.
- 通过使用辅助数据,小面积估计 (SAE) 可以弥合缺乏直接人口规模估计 (PSE) 的地区的数据差距.
- 常规收集的项目数据尚未被广泛用于关键人群的次国家公用事业单位的辅助数据.
研究的目的:
- 系统地生成纳米比亚FSW和MSM的区域规模估计.
- 将例行收集的艾滋病毒计划数据纳入估计方法.
- 通过与当地利益相关者达成共识的方法,为艾滋病毒计划战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 与当地利益相关者一起使用了基于共识的估计方法.
- 来自服务提供商的综合季度艾滋病毒计划数据.
- 采用贝叶斯三角法,将现有的公共服务企业与程序数据进行权衡.
- 使用简单归算,分层归算和Poisson回归生成的SAE.
- 通过代的定性排名过程选择最终估计.
主要成果:
- 国家对FSW的估计范围从4,777到13,148 (1.5%-3.6%的15-49岁女性).
- 国家对MSM的估计范围从4,611到10,171 (0.7%-1.5%的15-49岁男性).
- 包括程序数据作为先验影响比例,例如,FSW比例通过简单的归算从1.9%增加到2.8%.
- 使用艾滋病毒流行率或人口密度进行分层归算,根据地区和密度对FSW和MSM比例产生了不同的影响.
结论:
- 在纳米比亚,SAE成功地将流行病学和计划数据结合起来,用于下国家关键人口规模估计.
- 估计显示,对项目数据的包含有显著的敏感性.
- 计划数据提供了一个有价值的补充来源,用于将公共服务企业与现实世界艾滋病毒计划结合起来,特别是在数据收集具有挑战的地方.
- 需要进行进一步的研究,以优化包括和验证关键人口规模估计的计划数据,并加强艾滋病毒应对工作.
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