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2050年地中海东部和中东地区预计的风能和太阳能潜力
Pantelis Kiriakidis1, Theodoros Christoudias1, Jonilda Kushta1
1The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi, Nicosia, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus.
The Science of the total environment
|April 4, 2024
概括
东地中海和中东 (EMME) 地区具有重要的可再生能源潜力. 到2050年,一些国家可以出口能源,而另一些国家可能仍然依赖进口,埃及作为潜在的发电厂.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 能源政策 能源政策
背景情况:
- 全球能源转型优先考虑可再生能源 (RES),如太阳能和风能,以实现能源自给自足.
- 考虑到气候变量和电网集成的间歇性,准确地定位可再生能源至关重要.
- 东地中海和中东 (EMME) 地区拥有大量的可再生能源潜力,但缺乏详细的气候和能源研究.
研究的目的:
- 通过先进的建模,估计EMME国家可再生能源的技术潜力.
- 根据当前和未来的气候场景,绘制太阳能和风能每小时发电配置文件.
- 为能源系统运营商和政策制定者提供2050年区域能源转型的信息.
主要方法:
- 用化学 (WRF-CHEM) 的天气研究和预测模型进行模拟.
- 模拟太阳能和风能每小时发电概况,用于2015年参考年和未来条件.
- 分析了季节性发电模式,并确定了太阳能和风能之间的互补或替代关系.
主要成果:
- 到2050年,七个EMME国家可能成为能源净出口国,而九个可能仍然依赖进口.
- 埃及显示出可能出现显著的能源余 (76千瓦/小时),而阿联可能面临赤字 (955千瓦/小时/年).
- 确定了四种主要的季节性生成模式,在六个国家有互补关系,在四个国家有替代关系.
结论:
- 到2050年,EMME地区有可能显著增加其对可再生能源的依赖.
- 具体国家分析揭示了能源未来的多样性,突出了出口机会和对依赖进口的国家的挑战.
- 了解季节性发电模式和资源互补性是有效将可再生能源整合到电网中的关键,希腊持续的风能就是一个例子.
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