检查犯罪者重新入境的动态风险评估 (DRAOR) 的变化轨迹
Danielle J Rieger1, Bronwen Perley-Robertson1, Ralph C Serin1
1Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
概括
违法者重新入境的动态风险评估 (DRAOR) 在监督的爱荷华成年人中随着时间的推移显示出极小的变化. 与基线相比,近距离得分并没有改善复发性预测,这与预期相反.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 法医心理学 法医心理学
- 校正服务机构的校正服务.
背景情况:
- 动态风险评估尺度对于预测重复犯罪至关重要.
- 以前的评估通常使用单一的分数,忽视了随时间的变化.
- 临近风险评估通常在预测复发方面优于基线评估.
研究的目的:
- 为了检查DRAOR (Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Reentry) 的动态风险评估规模的动态特性.
- 评估基线与近接DRAOR评分关于复发和撤销的预测有效性.
主要方法:
- 这项研究分析了来自爱荷华州社区监督的4736名成年人的数据,其中有33965项评估.
- 随着时间的推移,研究了DRAOR域的变化.
- 在11421名成年人样本中评估了基线和近位DRAOR得分的预测有效性.
主要成果:
- 客户显示,随着时间的推移,DRAOR域名的变化在统计上显著,但很小.
- DRAOR基线得分预测了重复犯罪和撤销.
- 与基线得分相比,近接DRAOR得分没有提高预测准确性.
结论:
- 在这个爱荷华州样本中,DRAOR尺度显示了有限的动态变化.
- 这些发现与之前的研究形成了鲜明对比,表明了潜在的实施忠实性问题.
- 需要进一步的研究来了解DRAOR的动态特性和社区纠正中的重新评估数据.
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