在快速生长的种植园中最佳旋转年龄:一个动态优化问题
Alex Altamirano-Fernández1, Alejandro Rojas-Palma2, Sergio Espinoza-Meza3
1Departamento de Matemática, Física y Estadística, Universidad Católica del Maule, Av San Miguel 3605, 3460000, Talca, Chile. alex.altamirano@alu.ucm.cl.
Bulletin of mathematical biology
|April 6, 2024
概括
气候变化影响着森林种植园. 这项研究模拟了最佳木材旋转年龄,在现实的场景中发现24年,在悲观的易燃条件中发现19年,以最大限度地提高经济效益.
科学领域:
- 林业科学 林业科学
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 森林种植园对于木材和碳捕获至关重要,但气候变化可能会改变生长和最佳收获时间.
- 现有的数学模型对气候变化对木材旋转年龄的影响是有限的.
- 了解这些影响对于可持续森林管理和经济可行性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定木材生产的最佳旋转年龄,在负面气候变化情景下最大限度地提高净经济效益.
- 开发和应用一个合并森林生长,火灾风险和管理策略的生物经济最佳控制模型.
- 分析气候变化和火灾发生率对Pinus radiata种植园的旋转年龄和经济回报的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用普通微分方程 (ODE) 系统制定了一个生物经济最佳控制问题.
- 纳入的状态变量:活生物质量量,内在生长率和受火灾影响的面积.
- 采用了砍伐,稀薄,再造林和防火的控制变量,通过前向后向扫描方法数量解决.
主要成果:
- 最佳策略包括基于生物质和收获水平的同时管理砍伐,稀薄和再造林.
- 在现实的场景中,防火支出减少,但在悲观的,高火灾风险的场景中增加.
- 对Pinus radiata的最佳旋转年龄被确定为现实情景的24年和悲观情景的19年.
结论:
- 最佳旋转年龄受到火灾发生率的重大影响,直接影响净经济效益.
- 综合森林管理策略,包括防火,对于在气候变化下最大限度地提高经济回报至关重要.
- 该模型为适应不断变化的环境条件的适应性森林管理提供了宝贵的见解.
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