通过MaxEnt建模预测Quercus gilva的分布动态及其对由温室气体排放引起的气候变化的反应
Jingye Shi1, Muxuan Xia1, Guoqin He2
1College of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, 410004, Hunan, China.
Journal of environmental management
|April 6, 2024
概括
气候变化将缩小Quercus gilva,一个常青树的分布. 降水现在是关键,但温度将对其未来的范围转移到更高的海拔和度至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 树 (Quercus gilva) 是东亚亚亚热带地区生态和经济重要的一棵常青树.
- 了解气候变化对Q. gilva分布的影响对于遗传资源保护和植树战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在各种气候变化场景下预测Quercus gilva的当前和未来潜在分布.
- 为了确定影响Q. gilva分布的关键气候因素.
- 为Q. gilva.的保护和利用提供科学参考资料.
主要方法:
- 使用了74个Q. gilva的分布记录和9个气候变量.
- 采用了使用当前和未来气候数据 (2040年代和2060年代在SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下) 的优化参数的MaxEnt模型.
- 分析了温度和降水变量对分布模式的贡献.
主要成果:
- 目前的分布预测与东亚 (中国,日本,韩国) 已知的自然范围保持一致.
- 降水量,特别是最干旱季度降水量 (BIO17),是电流分布的最重要因素.
- 未来的分布主要受到最干旱季度 (BIO9) 的平均温度的影响,预计将有收缩趋势 (12.24%-45.21%) 和迁移到更高的海拔和度.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将大大减少Quercus gilva.适合的息地.
- 预计该物种将其分布转移到较冷,较高的海拔和更高的度地区.
- 这些发现为有针对性的保护工作和Q. gilva资源的可持续管理提供了关键的见解.
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