未来社会和气候的变化可能会对整个欧洲的野生大型食草动物有很大的影响
Marco Davoli1,2, Jens-Christian Svenning3
1Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) & Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Aarhus University, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
概括
可持续发展最好支持欧洲的大型野生食草动物,维护息地并增加物种丰富性. 其他场景威胁着食草动物的多样性和生态系统的健康.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 大型草食动物的恢复对生物多样性生态系统至关重要.
- 21世纪的环境变化对食草动物息地构成重大威胁.
研究的目的:
- 为18种欧洲大型食草动物预测未来的息地动态.
- 在不同的社会经济和排放情景下评估未来物种丰富度和平均体重.
主要方法:
- 使用了四种共享社会经济路径-代表性度路径 (SSP-RCP) 场景.
- 模拟了欧洲大型食草动物的息地适宜性,物种丰富性和平均体重变化.
主要成果:
- 可持续发展 (SSP1-RCP2.6) 促进了稳定的息地和增加了物种丰富.
- 其他场景 (SSP2-RCP4.5,SSP3-RCP7.0,SSP5-RCP8.5) 对于大型食草动物来说通常是不利的.
- SSP5-RCP8.5显示了物种丰富度和体重的潜在区域增加 (例如,巴尔干半岛/希腊).
结论:
- 转向可持续发展为欧洲野生大型食草动物提供了最佳的保护前景.
- 保持食草动物的多样性,有助于营养物复杂性和生态系统的恢复.
- 未来的生态系统健康取决于社会经济发展和气候变化减缓.
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