预计未来的气候对植被类型的全球分布产生强迫作用
Bethany J Allen1,2, Daniel J Hill3, Ariane M Burke4
1Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Basel 4056, Switzerland.
概括
到2500年,气候变化将大大改变全球生物群,迫使物种迁移和生态系统碎片化. 如果没有缓解,北极森林等适应寒冷的地区将面临重大生物群转变,威胁到生物多样性和生态系统服务.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物多样性研究的研究.
背景情况:
- 全球气候模型预测未来500年气温和降雨量将发生显著变化.
- 目前的气候变化影响预测仅延伸到2100年,限制了对长期生态后果的理解.
- 由于环境条件的变化,预计物种迁移和生态系统碎片化.
研究的目的:
- 为了模拟气候变化对全球植被的影响,直到公元2500年.
- 评估物种迁徙的可行性和潜在的人类土地使用冲突.
- 解决气候变化长期影响评估中的数据缺口.
主要方法:
- 在各种二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放场景下,利用一般循环模型每20年模拟气候未来,从公元2000年到公元2500年.
- 将生物组模型应用于预测的气候数据,以分析气候对全球植被的影响的变化.
- 评估了未来生物群分布与当前人类土地使用模式 (人类) 之间的潜在重叠.
主要成果:
- 根据一项如常的排放情况,到2500年,高达40%的陆地区域可能适合不同的生物群.
- 预计适应寒冷的生物群,特别是北极森林和干燥的原,将经历适合息地的最实质性的减少.
- 预计生物群分布的重大变化,需要广泛的物种迁徙.
结论:
- 长期气候变化预测显示,到2500年,生物组将发生重大变化,超过目前的评估时间表.
- 如果未能减轻二氧化碳排放,可能会导致严重的生物多样性丧失和破坏生态系统服务.
- 了解这些长期动态对于有效的适应策略和地球管理至关重要.
相关概念视频
01:50Global Climate Change
24.3K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.3K
01:16What is Climate?
18.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.4K
01:50Threats to Biodiversity
22.3K
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
22.3K
01:57Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
25.5K
Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.
25.5K
02:45Responses to Heat and Cold Stress
13.5K
Every organism has an optimum temperature range within which healthy growth and physiological functioning can occur. At the ends of this range, there will be a minimum and maximum temperature that interrupt biological processes.
13.5K
02:26Ecological Disturbance
17.1K
An ecological disturbance is a temporary disruption in the environment resulting from abiotic, biotic, or anthropogenic factors, causing a pronounced change in an ecosystem. The impact of an ecological disturbance, which can depend on its intensity, frequency, and spatial distribution, plays a significant role in shaping the species diversity within the ecosystem.
17.1K