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使用古代沉积物DNA来预测气候变化下的生态系统轨迹
Inger Greve Alsos1, Victor Boussange2,3, Dilli Prasad Rijal1
1The Arctic University Museum of Norway, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, 9037 Tromsø, Norway.
概括
沉积式古代DNA (sedaDNA) 提供了详细的过去物种丰度数据. 这些数据改善了生态预测模型,有助于预测气候变化下的生态系统动态.
科学领域:
- 古生态学 古生态学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 生态系统的动态是复杂的,难以预测.
- 高质量的历史物种丰度数据对于生态模型至关重要.
- 沉积式古代DNA (sedaDNA) 为重建过去的生态系统提供了一种新的方法.
研究的目的:
- 概述sedadDNA在预测生态系统变化方面的潜力.
- 为了证明 sedaDNA 时间序列如何能为生态模型提供信息.
- 要突出 sedaDNA 与稳健预测的建模的整合.
主要方法:
- 使用sedadDNA生成过去物种丰富度的高分辨率时间序列.
- 分析 sedaDNA 数据,以超越传统微化石的分类学分辨率.
- 将 sedaDNA衍生的古时系列与基于过程和反向建模相结合.
主要成果:
- SedaDNA提供了物种级丰富性数据,特别是血管植物和哺乳动物.
- 来自 sedaDNA 的古老时间序列允许量化生物相互作用和分散率.
- 将sedadDNA与建模集成,使得基本生物和非生物过程的表征成为可能.
结论:
- SedaDNA显著提高了我们记录过去生态系统动态的能力.
- 基于 sedaDNA 的动态模型可以提供对未来生态系统应对气候变化的可靠预测.
- 这种方法超越了对生态预测的当代数据限制.
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