一个用于预测Philaenus spumarius的现象学的模型
Gianni Gilioli1, Anna Simonetto2, Igor Daniel Weber2
1DICATAM, University of Brescia, Via Branze 43, 25123, Brescia, Italy. gianni.gilioli@unibs.it.
Scientific reports
|April 7, 2024
概括
一个新的模型使用温度预测Philaenus spumarius (草地虫) 现象学. 该工具有助于制定对这种农业害虫的时间控制策略.
科学领域:
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- 生态建模 生态建模
- 昆虫害虫管理 昆虫害虫管理
背景情况:
- 有效控制Philaenus spumarius (草原虫) 取决于精确的人口现象学预测.
- 农业生态系统模型对于制定有针对性的害虫管理策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个温度驱动的生理模型,用于预测Philaenus spumarius的现象学.
- 提供决策支持工具,以优化对这种载体的监测和控制行动.
主要方法:
- 利用基于科尔莫戈罗夫部分微分方程的模型,结合了卵子隔膜,发育速率和温度值.
- 使用来自意大利的实验室和现场数据校准模型,估计了关键的现象学参数.
- 评估模特在模拟 nymphal instar 出现时的准确性.
主要成果:
- 估计在6.5°C和120DD的卵子隔离期结束.
- 确定了预先想象的发展值:较低的 (2.15.0°C),最佳的 (26.628.3°C) 和较高的 (33.035°C).
- 模型准确地模拟了晚期 (3rd5th) 淋巴体阶段的出现,这对控制至关重要,但对早期阶段 (1st2nd) 的准确性较低.
结论:
- 开发的模型作为一种有价值的工具,用于在害虫管理中的合理决策.
- 它支持调度监测和控制干预措施,以向Philaenus spumarius的关键幼虫阶段.
- 对于早期的幼虫阶段的模型改进可以进一步提高其在农业生态系统中的效用.
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