捕获估值研究采样不确定性在估计的健康状态实用值使用EQ-5D-3L的EQ-5D-3L
Spyridon Poulimenos1,2, Jeff Round3,4, Gianluca Baio1
1Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, UK.
概括
本研究引入了一种新的方法,用于从EQ-5D-3L仪器中量化健康实用性得分的不确定性. 开发的价格为每个健康状况提供了分配,改善了经济评估.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 生活质量研究 研究 生命质量研究
背景情况:
- 基于偏好的与健康有关的生活质量仪器,如EQ-5D-3L,将实用性得分作为点值估计.
- 这种方法往往忽略了基础估值数据中固有的变化和不确定性.
- 卫生技术评估指南强调在经济评估中考虑不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 开发方法来捕捉英国EQ-5D-3L估值研究中的不确定性.
- 导出一个新的关税,将特定的封闭形式分配给每个EQ-5D-3L健康状态的实用性.
- 为经济评估提供一个工具,反映实用性评分的不确定性.
主要方法:
- 在英国EQ-5D-3L估值研究数据中使用贝叶斯方法.
- 构建了一个层次模型,以考虑模型错误规范和参与者响应.
- 使用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛 (MCMC) 抽样和正常分布的混合 (使用KL分歧和BFGS近似计算).
主要成果:
- 获得了4000x243的MCMC样本,没有证据表明非融合.
- 该模型表现出对先前和起始价值变化的稳定性.
- 后来的效用分布被总结为正常分布的低KL分歧的3组分混合物.
结论:
- 开发的方法解释了估值研究中通常被忽视的不确定性层.
- 导出关税允许从它们的分配中直接抽取实用价值,反映不确定性.
- 这些技术适用于世界各地的其他卫生工具和人口.
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