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Updated: Jun 29, 2025

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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对农业气候风险的实证建模
Jennifer Burney1,2, Craig McIntosh1, Bruno Lopez-Videla3
1School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093.
概括
气候变化适应政策需要更好的影响评估. 这项研究使用巴西农业数据来预测未来的气候影响,揭示了季节性加剧和局部冲击加剧了作物产量和贷款违约.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 环境科学环境科学
背景情况:
- 有效的气候变化适应政策需要了解影响,暴露和脆弱性.
- 适合应对的机构对于应对气候变化影响至关重要.
- 需要将经验损害估计与未来气候预测进行可信的配对.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种将经验损害估计与预测的气候变化配对的方法.
- 分析巴西的农业生产和贷款偿还数据,以了解脆弱性.
- 预测未来气候对巴西农业的影响,并确定关键的脆弱性维度.
主要方法:
- 两十年来巴西农业生产和贷款偿还数据的分析.
- 历史天气变化的分解 (趋势,季节性,冲击) 来解释产量变化.
- 经验估计与巴西偏差纠正,缩小规模的气候模拟的整合.
主要成果:
- 历史上的天气变化解释了巴西主要作物产量变化的50%以上.
- 预计在本世纪中叶的气候变化表明产量增加和收入变化.
- 由于季节性和局部冲击加剧,预计农业贷款违约率将更高.
结论:
- 加剧的季节性和局部冲击是农业对气候变化脆弱性的关键方面.
- 对共同变量冲击减轻通过价格影响的能力降低加剧了脆弱性.
- 弹性战略应优先考虑储水,金融服务和再保险等机构.
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