泰国过度死亡率和COVID-19封锁的混合效应建模
Anna Christine De Padua Durante1, Rutcher Lacaza1, Pamela Lapitan1
1Economic Research and Development Impact Department, Asian Development Bank, Mandaluyong, Philippines.
Scientific reports
|April 8, 2024
概括
准确的COVID-19死亡数据至关重要,但往往有限. 这项研究使用亚国家级数据估计了泰国的过度死亡,并发现因封锁而减少的流动性可能避免了非COVID死亡.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 准确的死亡率数据对于了解COVID-19的影响和危机应对至关重要.
- 发表的统计数据往往误导死亡,原因是测试限制,报告不足和缺乏次国家数据,特别是在发展中国家.
- 泰国在2020年1月至2021年12月的四次COVID-19浪潮期间实施了省级,分色彩的封锁.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计2020-2021年期间泰国省份的过度死亡率,计算直接和间接的COVID-19死亡.
- 分析实施的限制,人口流动性和过度死亡率之间的相关性.
- 评估封锁对死亡率的影响,包括非COVID死亡的潜在厌恶.
主要方法:
- 利用混合效应建模 (固定效应负二项式和混合效应Poisson) 来估计反事实死亡,并构建省份过度死亡率的月度时间序列.
- 采用了面板回归方法来研究限制,流动性和过度死亡率之间的关系.
- 应用了自动回归分布式滞后模型来探索锁定效应的传输机制.
主要成果:
- 提供了使用强大的统计模型在泰国过度死亡的第一个地方估计.
- 证明减少流动性在实施后适度降低了死亡率,这表明在避免非COVID死亡方面发挥了重要作用.
- 报告指出,在整个大流行期间,封锁的有效性各不相同,减少流动性可能是中介因素,尽管估计显示不准确.
结论:
- 地方过度死亡率估计是可行的和有价值的,即使有数据限制.
- 泰国的封锁似乎减少了整体死亡率,可能是通过减少流动性来缓解非COVID死亡.
- 需要进一步的研究来完善估计,并充分理解公共卫生干预,流动性和死亡率结果之间的复杂相互作用.
相关概念视频
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
424
Parametric survival analysis models survival data by assuming a specific probability distribution for the time until an event occurs. The Weibull and exponential distributions are two of the most commonly used methods in this context, due to their versatility and relatively straightforward application.
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
424
Censoring Survival Data
88
Survival analysis is a statistical method used to analyze time-to-event data, often employed in fields such as medicine, engineering, and social sciences. One of the key challenges in survival analysis is dealing with incomplete data, a phenomenon known as "censoring." Censoring occurs when the event of interest (such as death, relapse, or system failure) has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period or is otherwise unobservable, and it might have many different...
88
Strategies for Assessing and Addressing Confounding
95
Confounding is a critical issue in epidemiological studies, often leading to misleading conclusions about associations between exposures and outcomes. It occurs when the relationship between the exposure and the outcome is mixed with the effects of other factors that influence the outcome. Given that, addressing confounding is of high importance for drawing accurate inferences in research.
Confounding can be addressed at both the design phase of a study and through analytical methods after data...
Confounding can be addressed at both the design phase of a study and through analytical methods after data...
95
Confounding in Epidemiological Studies
169
Confounding in statistical epidemiology represents a pivotal challenge, referring to the distortion in the perceived relationship between an exposure and an outcome due to the presence of a third variable, known as a confounder. This variable is associated with both the exposure and the outcome but is not a direct link in their causal chain. Its presence can lead to erroneous interpretations of the exposure's effect, either exaggerating or underestimating the true association. This...
169
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
39
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
39
Regression Toward the Mean
6.3K
Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...
6.3K


