在气候变化下,绘制法国小麦作物表态与气候风险之间的竞赛
Renan Le Roux1, Carina Furusho-Percot2, Jean-Charles Deswarte3
1INRAE, AgroClim, 84914, Avignon, France. renan.le-roux@inrae.fr.
Scientific reports
|April 8, 2024
概括
气候变化对小麦生产构成风险. 新的方法表明,虽然小麦的早期生长可能会避免水资源短缺,但未来的热应激和干旱将显著影响法国小麦产量.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 农业学是一种农业学.
背景情况:
- 气候变化通过影响谷物作物的生产力,影响了粮食安全.
- 目前的农业气候风险评估忽视了气候变化下的现象学非静止性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种用于空间分类小麦农业气候风险的新方法.
- 评估未来气候变化对法国小麦种植的影响.
主要方法:
- 结合了高分辨率的气候数据和小麦现象模型.
- 采用GCM-RCM模型对和排放场景来实施法国小麦的方法.
主要成果:
- 小麦的现象学转变可能最初会减轻缺水的风险.
- 未来的预测表明,日益严重的热应激和水资源短缺将对法国小麦产生负面影响.
- 根据RCP 8.5.5,根据RCP 8.5.5预测的高达4年/十年的热水短缺风险.
结论:
- 新方法为区域适应战略提供了详细的风险信息.
- 识别风险的性质,时间,位置和风险组合,以提高农业的抗灾能力.
- 这是培育适应气候变化的小麦品种的基本步骤.
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