基于乌克兰网络扩展方法的关键群体和"桥梁群体"的大小估计
Oksana Kovtun1, Volodymyr Paniotto2, Yulia Sakhno2
1Alliance for Public Health, Kyiv, Ukraine. kovtun@aph.org.ua.
BMC public health
|April 8, 2024
概括
网络扩展方法 (NSUM) 可靠地估计了乌克兰艾滋病毒/艾滋病响应的关键人群. 虽然对关键群体有效,但对于准确的桥梁人口估计需要进一步精细化.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 社交网络分析 社交网络分析
背景情况:
- 准确估计关键和桥梁人口对于有效的艾滋病毒/艾滋病规划至关重要,特别是在资源有限的环境中.
- 传统方法面临挑战,因为这些人群的隐藏性质.
- 正在采用诸如网络扩展方法 (NSUM) 等创新方法.
研究的目的:
- 应用和评估网络扩展方法 (NSUM) 来估计乌克兰关键和桥梁人口的规模.
- 评估NSUM在乌克兰背景下的挑战和贡献.
- 通过改善人口规模估计,为艾滋病毒/艾滋病应对策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 乌克兰从2020年7月到9月使用计算机辅助电话采访进行了一项全国代表性调查.
- 已知的人口方法和总和方法被用来估计社交网络的大小.
- 结果被加权,并根据社会尊重和可见性因素进行调整.
主要成果:
- 该研究实现了20%的响应率,完成了1万次面试.
- 估计的关键人口规模:295,857名注射毒品的人,152,267名与男性发生性关系的男性,78,385名性工作者和9,963名跨性别者.
- 估计的桥梁人口规模:62,162名注射毒品的人的性伴侣,284,348名性工作者的客户和13,697名与男性发生性关系的男性的女性伴侣.
结论:
- 当应用适当的校正时,NSUM证明了估计关键人口大小的可靠性.
- 该方法显示了未来在乌克兰使用的潜力,特别是在综合生物行为研究地理覆盖范围有限的地方.
- 为了改进桥梁人口规模估计,需要进一步完善NSUM并解决数据收集问题.
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