专业投资者的大脑活动信号未来的股票表现
Leonard D van Brussel1, Maarten A S Boksem1, Roeland C Dietvorst2
1Rotterdam School of Management, Department of Marketing Management, Erasmus University, Rotterdam 3062 PA, The Netherlands.
概括
神经预测揭示了专业投资者的核聚集体 (NAcc) 活动可以预测未来的股票表现. 这个与奖励预期相关的大脑信号,提供了超越传统财务指标和陈述偏好的洞察力.
科学领域:
- 神经科学是一个神经科学.
- 金融 金融 金融 金融 金融
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 投资者试图预测股票表现,但传统方法和陈述的偏好往往不足.
- 新兴的神经预测研究将大脑活动,特别是奖励预期,与市场行为和股票动态联系起来.
研究的目的:
- 调查专业投资者处理现实投资数据的神经反应是否可以预测长期股票表现.
- 将神经预测的发现扩展到做出复杂投资决策的经验丰富的投资者.
主要方法:
- 功能磁共振成像 (fMRI) 用于测量投资者的大脑活动,而他们评估投资案例.
- 投资者的神经反应与评估投资的随后的实际股票市场表现相关.
- 在分析中控制了股票指标和投资者的扫描器预测.
主要成果:
- 无论是投资者的声明偏好还是传统的股票指标都没有预测未来的股票表现.
- 在信息处理过程中,更高的核结合体 (NAcc) 活动与随后表现过高的投资案例有关.
- 交叉验证分析证实,NAcc活动显著预测了超出机会的样本外股票表现.
结论:
- 核心聚合体 (NAcc) 中的神经活动可以作为未来股票表现的预测指标,即使传统指标失败.
- 与奖励预期相关的大脑反应为改善股票市场预测提供了一个新的途径.
- 这些发现支持神经预测在理解和预测专业投资者金融市场行为的实用性.
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