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预测G20国家在未来30年的生态足迹
Rafael M Eufrasio Espinosa1, S C Lenny Koh2
1Advanced Resource Efficiency Centre, Management School, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK. r.eufrasio@sheffield.ac.uk.
Scientific reports
|April 9, 2024
概括
全球资源消耗超过了可用性,导致加速下降. 到2050年,只有四个G20国家可能保持积极的生态足迹平衡,这表明资源供应持续下降趋势.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态经济学生态经济学
- 可持续性研究 可持续性研究
背景情况:
- 人类消费趋势显示,近几十年来可再生资源的可用性正在加速下降.
- 生态足迹量化了可再生资源再生和人类需求之间的差异.
- 了解未来的资源可用性对于全球可持续发展努力至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测G20国家的30年生态足迹.
- 分析国家足迹和生物能力账户,以预测未来.
- 确定影响主要经济体生态足迹平衡的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 使用时间序列预测模型,包括Prophet和ARIMA (Auto-ARIMA),在Python中实现.
- 评估和结合多种预测方法的性能,以进行可靠的预测.
- 使用国家足迹和生物能力数据进行分析.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,只有四个G20国家将保持积极的生态足迹平衡.
- 确定了大面积的土地和适度的人口增长作为积极余额的国家的共同因素.
- 表明G20国家整体生态足迹指标的持续下降趋势.
结论:
- 到2050年,大多数G20国家都将面临负面的生态足迹平衡,这凸显了严重的资源赤字.
- 特定的地理和人口因素可以在短期内减轻负面的生态足迹.
- 迫切需要全球战略来应对持续下降的资源供应和促进可持续性.
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