对美国墨西哥湾沿岸风险感知和适应行为的纵向调查
Gabrielle Wong-Parodi1,2,3, Daniel P Relihan4, Dana Rose Garfin5
1Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
PNAS nexus
|April 10, 2024
概括
适应气候变化至关重要,但对当前风险采取行动可能会降低未来的风险感知. 尽管气候威胁日益增加,但这可能会阻碍适应努力,需要采取积极的政策.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 风险感知研究 风险感知研究
背景情况:
- 气候变化需要持续适应,以减轻人类的痛苦.
- 由于不可预测和日益加剧的气候威胁,适应是具有挑战性的.
- 了解随着时间的推移风险感知和适应的共同演变是必不可少的.
研究的目的:
- 研究个人风险感知与气候变化适应行为之间的动态关系.
- 在应对与气候有关的威胁时,识别不同的风险感知轨迹.
- 检查适应行为如何影响未来的风险感知.
主要方法:
- 在2017-2022年期间,对德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州2,774名居民进行了前性调查.
- 数据收集发生在热带气旋暴露的存在和不存在期间.
- 分析个人风险感知和适应行为的不同轨迹.
主要成果:
- 在受教育程度较低的个人和佛罗里达州居民中观察到更高和更可变的个人风险感知.
- 热带气旋适应行为增加与个人风险感知随着时间的推移而降低相关,特别是没有最近的风暴暴露.
- 对未来热带气旋风险的看法尽管增加了适应行为,但仍然保持不变.
结论:
- 适应当前的气候风险可能会无意中减少感知到的未来风险,可能会抑制持续的适应.
- 现有的适应行为可能与未来不断升级的气候威胁不一致.
- 建议通过促进主动适应投资的政策来解决这种脱节问题.
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