尼泊尔丘雷地区森林火灾的脆弱性:使用通用线性模型调查影响因素
Khagendra Prasad Joshi1, Gunjan Adhikari2, Divya Bhattarai3,4
1Kathmandu Forestry College, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, 44600, Nepal.
Heliyon
|April 10, 2024
概括
丘雷地区的森林火灾经常发生,破坏资源. 这项研究确定了影响火灾发生的森林面积和降雨等关键因素,有助于管理策略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
背景情况:
- 丘雷地区是一个地质上年轻的山脉,面临着自然灾害,特别是森林火灾的重大风险.
- 经常发生的森林火灾导致自然资源和人为资源的退化,但导致因素仍未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 识别和分析影响因素,有助于重复发生的森林火灾事件在丘雷地区.
- 开发森林火灾易感性的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 使用二元物流回归的通用线性建模,结合卫星检测到的火点和各种独立变量.
- 采用差异通胀因子 (VIF) 和相关矩阵来选择14个合适的变量.
- 使用曲线下的面积 (AUC) 和精度 (ACC) 评估验证了模型.
主要成果:
- 森林火灾主要发生在季风前的时期,并且与森林面积,牧场,裸露地面和NDVI有积极的相关性.
- 随着海拔,降水量和人口密度的增加,火灾发生的概率下降.
- 森林面积,降水和海拔被确定为最有影响力的因素.
结论:
- 开发的模型显示出对森林火灾易感性的优异预测能力 (AUC=0.92,ACC=0.89).
- 该研究提供了关键的见解和森林火灾易感性地图,用于区域管理和预防战略.
- 这些发现将有助于各机构制定有针对性的管理计划,以减轻森林火灾的影响和资源恶化.
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