了解韩国自杀率的波动:一个转折点分析和中断时间序列分析
Seunghyong Ryu1,2, Hee Jung Nam3, Ju-Yeon Lee1
1Department of Psychiatry, Chonnam National University Medical School, Gwangju, Korea.
Journal of Korean medical science
|April 10, 2024
概括
韩国 韩国 韩国 韩国
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 几十年来,韩国自杀率出现了显著的波动.
- 自杀趋势与死亡登记系统变化之间的潜在联系.
- 需要分析死亡率数据的结构性转变.
研究的目的:
- 探索韩国自杀趋势的结构性变化.
- 分析意外和不确定的死亡模式的变化.
- 为了将死亡率趋势与死亡登记系统修改相关联.
主要方法:
- 对自杀和外部原因的年龄调整后死亡率 (1997-2021) 的分析.
- 使用"断点"功能来识别变化点.
- 间断时间序列分析以评估变化点前后的趋势.
主要成果:
- 确定了三个关键的自杀率变化点 (2003年,2008年,2012年) 与不同的模式.
- 2003年和2008年的升恰逢死亡确认过程的变化.
- 在2003-2008年和2008-2012年期间观察到自杀的下降趋势;意外/不确定的死亡减少.
结论:
- 2000年代韩国自杀率的波动很可能是由于自杀分类的改善.
- 研究结果表明,实际的自杀率可能高于报告.
- 影响超越了社会经济因素,突出显示了数据质量影响.
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