在离散时间流行病模型中,在周期期间感染诱导的种群规模增加
Laura F Strube1,2,3, Shoshana Elgart4, Lauren M Childs5
1Department of Mathematics, Virginia Tech, 225 Stanger St, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA.
Journal of mathematical biology
|April 10, 2024
概括
将感染引入人口模型可以改变动态,创建不同的分叉结构,甚至导致人口增加,称为水效应,特别是当没有疾病的人口循环时.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 一维离散时间人口模型 (例如,Logistic,Ricker) 呈现出复杂的动态,如周期性和混乱.
- 将流行病学相互作用纳入人口模型引入了新的和复杂的行为.
研究的目的:
- 检查一个离散时间的二维易感-传染性 (SI) 模型与Ricker增长.
- 调查感染如何影响分叉结构和人口动态.
- 在这个SI模型中分析"水效应"的发生.
主要方法:
- 使用了数值分叉分析.
- 该研究分析了一种具有Ricker增长动态的二维离散时间SI模型.
- 研究了感染对生育率和死亡率参数的影响.
主要成果:
- 与无疾病系统相比,感染引入导致明显的分叉结构.
- 国际统计学模型可以显示总人口规模的反直觉增长 (水效应).
- 即使感染改变了生育力或死亡率,水效应也会被观察到,特别是当无病人口处于循环状态时.
结论:
- 具有里克尔增长的离散时间SI模型显示受感染影响的复杂动态.
- 感染可以显著改变人口动态,导致像水效应这样的意想不到的结果.
- 该研究强调了在人口建模中考虑流行病学因素的重要性,以了解新出现的行为.
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