慢性阻塞性肺部疾病和肺癌与中国环境改善的威胁变化:基于以年龄为探针的模型进行定量评估和预测
1College of Medical Laboratory, Dalian Medical University, Dalian, 116044, China.
新的指标,零死亡年龄 (AM0) 和平均死亡年龄 (AMa),有助于预测慢性疾病的威胁. 随着环境的改善,肺癌和COPD的风险都下降了,老龄化起到了关键作用.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 环境健康 环境健康
背景情况:
- 慢性疾病对公众健康构成重大威胁.
- 评估疾病负担的现有指标存在局限性.
- 慢性阻塞性肺部疾病 (COPD) 和肺癌是全球主要的健康问题.
研究的目的:
- 引入和评估新的定量指标,以评估和预测COPD和肺癌在人口层面的威胁.
- 分析这些指标的变化,以应对环境改善.
- 为未来的慢性疾病流行病学研究奠定理论基础.
主要方法:
- 使用线性回归对COPD和肺癌的年龄和死亡率数据计算零死亡率 (AM0) 和平均死亡率 (AMa) 的年龄.
- 2004年至2019年间的AM0和AMA值的比较.
- 对这两种疾病的年龄标准化死亡率的评估.
主要成果:
- 与2004年相比,2019年COPD和肺癌的AM0值都较高,这表明直接威胁减少.
- 肺癌的AM0显著低于COPD (41.643),比肺癌 (0.365) 低,这表明风险概况不同.
- 两种疾病的AMA值在两年间都保持在70-74岁年龄组内,年龄标准化死亡率相似.
- 肺癌和COPD的整体死亡风险有所降低,老龄化被确定为疾病发展的重要因素.
结论:
- AM0和AMa是量化和预测COPD和肺癌对人口威胁的有价值指标.
- 环境改善与这些疾病的死亡风险降低相关.
- 这些发现为进一步对慢性呼吸道疾病和肺癌的流行病学研究提供了基础.
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