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一种模态死亡年龄方法来预测成年人死亡率
Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher1, Paola Vázquez-Castillo1, Trifon I Missov1
1Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark.
Population studies
|April 11, 2024
概括
使用死亡时的模态年龄预测死亡率比传统方法具有优势. 这种新模型提高了预测欧洲国家的预期寿命和寿命变化的准确性.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 预测死亡率 预测死亡率
- 精算科学 精算科学
背景情况:
- 传统的死亡率预测依赖于特定年龄的死亡率.
- 像死亡时的平均,中位数和模式年龄这样的替代指标提供了对寿命变化的洞察力.
- 自20世纪中叶以来,死亡时的模态年龄呈现出一致的线性增长.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个先进的死亡率预测模型.
- 为了利用死亡时模态年龄的规律性进行预测.
- 将寿命变化的变化纳入预测模型.
主要方法:
- 预测40岁及以上个体的死亡率.
- 该模型应用于10个西欧国家.
- 利用死亡时的模态年龄作为主要预测因素.
主要成果:
- 与现有模型相比,开发的模型显示出更高的预测准确度.
- 该模型为40岁的预期寿命提供了一致的趋势.
- 该模型还给出了40岁时寿命变化的一致趋势.
结论:
- 根据死亡时的模式年龄预测死亡率是有利的.
- 新模型提高了死亡率指标的预测准确性.
- 这些发现支持在未来的人口预测中使用死亡时的模式年龄.
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