随着个人的年龄而预测司法参与:对公共安全评估的年龄分级评估
Ian A Silver1, Matthew DeMichele1, Jenna L Dole1
1Center for Legal Systems Research, Research Triangle Institute International, Research Triangle Park.
Law and human behavior
|April 11, 2024
概括
公共安全评估 (PSA) 显示,不同年龄组的预测准确性各不相同. 它预测新犯罪逮捕的能力随着年龄的增长而提高,这表明在评分解释中应该考虑年龄.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 法医心理学 法医心理学
- 犯罪社会学 犯罪社会学
背景情况:
- 审判前的评估,如公共安全评估 (PSA),面临潜在的种族偏见和对法律结果的不准确预测的批评.
- 现有的学术研究还没有彻底研究这些评估的预测有效性和准确性在不同年龄组之间如何变化.
- 生命过程理论表明,整个生命周期的发育变化可能会影响个体的风险因素,从而影响预测工具的性能.
研究的目的:
- 进行公共安全评估 (PSA) 的第一个年龄分级评估.
- 为了确定PSA的预测有效性和评分准确性是否在使用寿命之间存在差异.
- 为了检查PSA是否对年轻人与老年人的预测不足或过度预测.
主要方法:
- 利用了在"推进审判前政策和研究"项目中收集的31527名个人试验前数据.
- 采用后勤回归模型来评估18至68岁个人PSA的差异预测.
- 计算曲线下的面积 (AUC) 估计每年使用双变量模型来评估预测准确度.
主要成果:
- 有证据表明,PSA在18至68岁的年龄范围内对试前结果的差异预测.
- 新犯罪逮捕和新暴力犯罪逮捕等级的预测有效性随着年龄的增加而提高.
- 与年轻人相比,PSA在预测老年人的试验前结果方面表现出更高的准确性.
结论:
- 公众安全评估 (PSA) 已被证实是试验前结果的有效预测指标.
- 年龄显著影响某些PSA得分的预测有效性,特别是那些与新的犯罪和暴力逮捕有关的.
- 建议在解释新犯罪和暴力逮捕的PSA分数时考虑被告的年龄.
相关概念视频
02:55Stereotypes, Prejudice, and Discrimination
90.2K
Humans are very diverse and although we share many similarities, we also have many differences. The social groups we belong to help form our identities (Tajfel, 1974). These differences may be difficult for some people to reconcile, which may lead to prejudice toward people who are different. Prejudice is a negative attitude and feeling toward an individual based solely on one’s membership in a particular social group (Allport, 1954; Brown, 2010). Prejudice is common against people who...
90.2K
02:16Surveys
14.8K
Often, psychologists develop surveys as a means of gathering data. Surveys are lists of questions to be answered by research participants, and can be delivered as paper-and-pencil questionnaires, administered electronically, or conducted verbally. Generally, the survey itself can be completed in a short time, and the ease of administering a survey makes it easy to collect data from a large number of people.
14.8K
02:09Bystander Effect
9.6K
The discussion of bullying highlights the problem of witnesses not intervening to help a victim. This is a common occurrence, as the following well-publicized event demonstrates. In 1964, in Queens, New York, a 19-year-old woman named Kitty Genovese was attacked by a person with a knife near the back entrance to her apartment building and again in the hallway inside her apartment building. When the attack occurred, she screamed for help numerous times and eventually died from her stab wounds.
9.6K
01:29Reliability and Validity
12.7K
Reliability and validity are two important considerations that must be made with any type of data collection. Reliability refers to the ability to consistently produce a given result. In the context of psychological research, this would mean that any instruments or tools used to collect data do so in consistent, reproducible ways.
12.7K
01:23Types of Biopharmaceutical Studies: Controlled and Non-Controlled Approaches
126
Biopharmaceutical studies constitute a vital field aiming to enhance drug delivery methods and refine therapeutic approaches, drawing upon diverse interdisciplinary knowledge. In research methodologies, the choice between controlled and non-controlled studies significantly influences the study's reliability and accuracy.
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast,...
Non-controlled studies, commonly employed for initial exploration, lack a control group, rendering them susceptible to biases and external influences. In contrast,...
126
01:22Self-Report Tests of Personality
343
Self-report inventories are objective personality assessments that use multiple-choice items or numbered scales, typically ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree). They are often called Likert scales after Rensis Likert. These inventories are widely used due to their ease of administration and cost-effectiveness. One of the most prominent examples is the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI), initially developed in the 1940s to assess abnormal personality traits.
343