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交通作为COVID-19的疾病载体:边境流动和疾病传播
Okan Gurbuz1, Rafael M Aldrete1, David Salgado1,2
1Texas A&M Transportation Institute, El Paso, TX.
概括
边境社区经历了更快的COVID-19传播. 一个计量经济学模型发现,人口密度,流动性和墨西哥边境过境等因素显著影响病毒传播率.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19大流行,边境受到限制,这对跨境旅行产生了重大影响.
- 尽管旅行减少,但美国边境社区的COVID-19病例率较高,传播速度更快.
- 了解影响传播的社会经济和流动性因素对于公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个计量经济学模型,分析跨境流动和社会经济因素对COVID-19传播的影响.
- 评估美墨边境过境对县级病毒传播的具体影响.
主要方法:
- 使用来自美国所有3,141个县的数据构建了一个计量经济学模型.
- 对拥有和没有国际边境过境的美国县进行了比较分析.
- 关键变量包括人口密度,家庭规模,年龄人口统计数据,收入,口罩使用和流动性数据.
主要成果:
- 影响COVID-19传播的重要因素包括人口密度,家庭规模,工作年龄人口 (15-65岁),收入中位数,口罩使用和流动性 (过境,工作场所).
- 在县范围内有墨西哥边境过境是病毒传播的重要因素.
- 美国有边境过境的县平均每千人口中有123例病例,而非边境县每千人口中有90例病例.
结论:
- 跨境流动和社会经济因素显著影响COVID-19传播动态.
- 邻近墨西哥边境的美国县面临更快传播病毒的风险.
- 这些发现强调了在边境社区需要有针对性的公共卫生干预措施的必要性.
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