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在大多伦多地区确定预期的流行后模式选择的决定因素:声明偏好研究
Patrick Loa1, Khandker Nurul Habib1
1Department of Civil & Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
概括
随着COVID-19大流行,城市旅行转向私人和活跃模式,这些偏好可能会在流行后持续下去. 了解这些变化对于未来的交通政策至关重要.
科学领域:
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 运输科学 运输科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,COVID-19大流行大大改变了城市旅行模式.
- 对感染的恐惧增加了对私人车辆和活跃交通的需求,同时减少了公共交通和乘车共享的使用.
- 一个关键的问题仍然是,这些旅行行为和模式偏好的转变是否会长期持续下去.
研究的目的:
- 调查影响非通勤旅行的旅行模式选择的因素,在后疫情时代.
- 分析社会人口统计学特征和疫情前的旅行习惯如何影响未来的交通方式偏好.
- 为了比较不同收入和年龄的人口统计数据中关键变量的弹性.
主要方法:
- 利用了基于网络的调查数据,重点关注流行后旅行的声明偏好.
- 开发了一个随机参数混合逻辑模型来分析旅行模式选择.
- 研究了社会人口统计学因素和以前的旅行行为对未来选择的影响.
主要成果:
- 社会人口统计学属性和流行病前的旅行习惯显著影响预期的流行病后的旅行方式选择.
- 在大流行之前经常使用私人车辆,公共交通或活跃模式的个人可能会继续使用它们.
- 对共享移动服务的看法在塑造流行后的旅行模式决策中发挥着重要作用.
结论:
- 流行病前的旅行习惯和个人属性是流行病后旅行方式选择的强有力的预测因素.
- 政策应应对私人车辆使用的增加和公共交通的下降,确保所有人的流动性.
- 了解不断变化的旅行偏好对于可持续的城市交通规划至关重要.
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