球迷是否会影响体育比赛的结果? 一个COVID-19自然实验
Jeffrey Cross1, Richard Uhrig2
1Hamilton College, Utica, NY, USA.
概括
球迷的出席在欧洲顶级足球联赛中显著影响了主场优势. 由于COVID-19政策的减少出席率,主场优势下降了50%以上,降低了主场胜利的概率.
科学领域:
- 体育经济学体育经济学
- 足球分析 足球分析
背景情况:
- 在体育运动中,主场优势是一个经过充分记录的现象.
- 球迷的出席被广泛认为是主场优势的关键驱动力.
- 由于不同的出席限制,COVID-19大流行提供了一个独特的机会来研究这种效应.
研究的目的:
- 量化球迷出席对欧洲主要足球联赛主场优势的影响.
- 分析影响球迷出席率的COVID-19缓解政策如何影响比赛结果.
主要方法:
- 使用了来自英格兰英超联赛,德国德甲,意大利意甲和西班牙西甲的数据.
- 采用准实验方法来隔离粉丝出席率外源变化的影响.
- 使用主场和客场球队预期进球的差异来衡量主场优势.
主要成果:
- 由于COVID-19政策,各联盟的球迷出席率减少了50%以上.
- 这种减少的出场率导致测量的主场优势下降了50%以上.
- 主队获胜的概率下降,突出显示了进球对比赛结果的重要性.
结论:
- 球迷的出席是职业足球中主场优势的关键决定因素.
- 这些发现强调了球迷在影响球场表现和比赛结果方面发挥的重要作用.
- 影响人群出席的政策干预可以对体育赛事动态产生重大影响.
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