完美的正常后风暴:COVID-19年史 (2020年版)
Christopher Jones1, Jordi Serra Del Pino2, Liam Mayo3
1Walden University, CO, USA.
World futures review
|April 11, 2024
概括
COVID-19 流行病是后正常时代的典范,以加速变化,复杂性和不确定性为标志. 了解这些"后正常风暴"挑战了传统的范式,使我们恢复正常.
科学领域:
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
- 复杂性科学 复杂性科学
- 流行病学研究 流行病学研究
背景情况:
- COVID-19 流行病是理解"后常态时代"现象的关键案例研究.
- 通过人类和自然系统的快速,广泛和同时变化的特征.
- 这些变化增加了系统内部的复杂性,混乱和矛盾.
研究的目的:
- 介绍后常态分析的核心概念.
- 探索无知和不确定性在升级后正常状态中的作用.
- 检查"制造的正常场"和"滞后和倾斜"等反应如何塑造我们对后正常事件的理解.
主要方法:
- 对后常态现象的概念分析.
- 使用COVID-19大流行病的案例研究方法.
- 探索相关概念,如层次的无知,不确定性和制造的正常性.
主要成果:
- 确定COVID-19大流行是"一个完美的正常后风暴.
- 在变化的速度,范围,规模和同时性方面表现出加速.
- 突出了系统中日益增加的复杂性,混乱和矛盾,这些系统正朝着后正常状态发展.
- 探索了无知,不确定性和对后常态爆发的反应的影响.
结论:
- 疫情说明了后正常时代的关键特征,包括加速变化和增加的不确定性.
- 了解后常态动态对于应对复杂的全球挑战至关重要.
- 这项研究促使人们对以后正常现实为背景的占主导地位的增长和经济范式进行批判性反思.
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