COVID-19和枪支暴力:保持未知的冲击和波动的前景
1State University of New York - Buffalo State.
概括
随着COVID-19的流行,枪支暴力加剧了,尤其是在社交距离放松期间. 纽约几个区的犯罪率大幅上升,突出了公众安全问题.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 城市研究 城市研究
背景情况:
- COVID-19 流行病对公共安全带来了前所未有的挑战.
- 了解疫情对枪支暴力的影响对于政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计大流行对枪支暴力的不同影响.
- 分析社交距离,死亡率和位置对枪支暴力趋势的影响.
- 检查黑人生命重要 (BLM) 抗议活动和枪支暴力的政治影响.
主要方法:
- 使用来自纽约市 (2016-2020) 的每周犯罪数据,采用了中断时间序列分析.
- 使用Box-Cox功率转换和通用自回归有条件异种多样性 (GARCH) 技术来解决模型的非正常性和异种多样性.
- 地理分析侧重于特定的区:布朗克斯,布鲁克林,曼哈顿和皇后区,与斯塔顿岛相比.
主要成果:
- 在社交距离放松期间,死亡和非致命枪击事件的显著增加被观察到.
- "黑人生命重要"的抗议活动和脱离警务,显然对非致命的枪击事件产生了重大影响.
- 与斯坦顿岛相比,布朗克斯,布鲁克林,曼哈顿和皇后区的枪支暴力增加更大.
- 有证据表明,疫情期间枪支暴力的波动性增加,导致公众安全问题加剧.
结论:
- 疫情对纽约市的枪支暴力模式产生了重大影响.
- 政策干预应考虑社交距离措施和外部事件的差异性影响.
- 解决枪支暴力的波动性增加对于恢复公共安全和减少恐惧至关重要.
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