确定一组预测老年人认知障碍的因素
Longgang Zhao1, Yuan Wang1, Eric Mishio Bawa1
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina, United States of America.
PloS one
|April 11, 2024
概括
识别认知障碍风险因素的集群至关重要. 综合风险评分,包括年龄和健康饮食等因素,有效预测成年人的认知能力下降.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 认知障碍是越来越令人担忧的许多危险因素.
- 以前的研究还没有广泛探索这些风险因素的集群.
- 了解这些集群对于中年和老年人有针对性的干预措施至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 识别认知障碍风险因素的不同集群.
- 评估这些风险因素集群与认知表现之间的关联.
- 开发一种预测模型,用于识别高风险认知衰退的个体.
主要方法:
- 利用了国家健康和营养检查调查 (NHANES) III和2011-2014年的数据.
- 采用后勤回归和支持矢量机器方法来创建一个复合的风险评分.
- 使用几率比率 (OR) 和95%置信区间 (CI) 评估了风险得分和认知表现之间的关联.
主要成果:
- 综合风险评分是使用十个因素来制定的:年龄,腰围,健康饮食指数,种族,教育,收入,体力活动,糖尿病,高胆固醇和牙科诊所.
- 风险评分在训练 (OR=8.15) 和验证 (OR=4.31) 数据集中显著预测了认知表现差.
- 预测模型表现良好,曲线下的面积为0.74-0.77.
结论:
- 一个包含选择风险因素的验证模型可以识别具有认知障碍高风险的个体.
- 这种方法有助于早期检测和潜在干预认知衰退.
- 进一步的研究可以为更广泛的公共卫生应用改进该模型.
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