国家酒精政策环境与谋杀和自杀的关系
James P Murphy1, Rosanna Smart1, Terry L Schell1
1RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California.
American journal of preventive medicine
|April 11, 2024
概括
更严格的州酒精政策与更少的谋杀案有关. 在全国范围内增加酒精限制,每年可以防止大约1200起谋杀案,突出政策.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 卫生政策 卫生政策
背景情况:
- 酒精使用是美国大量杀人和自杀的重要因素.
- 关于酒精政策对暴力的影响的证据有限,大多数研究都孤立地检查政策.
- 要了解全面的酒精政策环境对暴力率的影响,需要采用整体方法.
研究的目的:
- 检查州级酒精政策限制变化对整体和与枪支有关的谋杀和自杀率的影响.
- 利用酒精政策环境的综合测量来评估政策的有效性.
- 提供关于酒精政策在减少暴力战略中的潜力的证据.
主要方法:
- 采用了州级酒精政策的综合衡量标准,即酒精政策量表.
- 利用了国家生命统计系统从2002年到2018年的数据.
- 应用贝叶斯时间序列模型来估计酒精政策变化与谋杀/自杀率之间的关联.
主要成果:
- 酒精政策量表中一个标准偏差的增加与整体谋杀率下降6%有关 (IRR=0.94).
- 与枪支相关的凶杀案 (IRR=0.94) 观察到类似的关联,与自杀率没有明确的联系.
- 在全国范围内实施更为严格的酒精政策,有可能每年避免近1200起谋杀案.
结论:
- 国家一级酒精政策的限制性增加与谋杀率的显著降低有关.
- 综合性和限制性酒精政策环境是减少谋杀案的可行战略.
- 调查结果表明,通过政策来缓解与酒精有关的暴力,可以修改的途径.
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