将社会脆弱性纳入高分辨率的全球洪水风险映射.
Sean Fox1, Felix Agyemang2, Laurence Hawker3
1School of Geographical Sciences & Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. sean.fox@bristol.ac.uk.
Nature communications
|April 11, 2024
概括
新的全球洪水风险地图现在包括社会脆弱性,这对于低收入国家的灾害规划至关重要. 这种根据脆弱性调整的风险指数 (VARI Flood) 突出了人口密度和社会脆弱性较高的地区,改善了风险评估.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 减少灾害风险 减少灾害风险
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
背景情况:
- 高分辨率的全球洪水风险地图对于灾害规划至关重要,特别是在数据有限的低收入国家.
- 现有的洪水风险评估往往忽视了社会脆弱性的空间变化,这是影响人口结果的关键因素.
- 了解洪水暴露和社会因素之间的相互作用对于有效的风险管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个全球脆弱性调整的洪水风险指数 (VARI Flood),整合社会脆弱性数据.
- 创建高分辨率 (90米) 洪水风险地图,考虑人口密度和贫困.
- 为了确定全球"热点"的洪水风险,以高人口密度和社会脆弱性为特征.
主要方法:
- 从高分辨率河流洪水模型中整合年平均超值概率估计.
- 纳入网格化的全球人口和贫困数据.
- 在90米分辨率下开发一种新的脆弱性调整风险指数 (VARI Flood).
主要成果:
- 创建了一个新的全球洪水风险指数 (VARI Flood),以90米分辨率纳入社会脆弱性.
- 该指数确定了高人口密度与高社会脆弱性相交的地理"热点".
- 结果表明,当考虑社会脆弱性时,洪水风险的空间差异显著.
结论:
- 瓦里洪水指数提供了对洪水风险的更全面的了解,强调了人类的福祉.
- 这种方法可以补充传统的人口和以资产为中心的风险评估.
- 这些发现特别适用于全球脆弱地区的灾害风险规划和应对.
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