相互依存的网络恢复游戏,不完全的信息和有限的理性
Hesam Talebiyan1, Leonardo Duenas-Osorio2
1Moody's, Newark, California, USA.
概括
在灾难后的基础设施恢复方面进行合作,即使不保证相互参与,也会产生最佳结果. 激励合作对于社区的弹性至关重要,特别是与重要的主导基础设施参与者.
科学领域:
- 运营研究 运营研究
- 游戏理论 游戏理论
- 基础设施弹性 基础设施弹性
背景情况:
- 灾难恢复计划需要有效的基础设施恢复策略.
- 独立公用事业管理人员的分散决策带来了复杂的挑战.
- 相互依存的基础设施系统加剧了恢复困难.
研究的目的:
- 使用游戏理论在相互依存的基础设施中建模战略性,分散的恢复决策.
- 将诸如沟通不良和行为偏见等现实的因素纳入决策模型.
- 确定最佳策略,以提高灾后社区的恢复力.
主要方法:
- 利用同时进行的游戏来分析决策者之间相互矛盾的偏好.
- 采用贝叶斯游戏来建模不完整的信息,因为有限的代理间通信.
- 嵌入的行为偏见,包括有限的理性和平等驱动的资源分配.
- 测试了合成和现实世界的 (TN的谢尔比县) 相互依存网络上的模型.
主要成果:
- 合作策略始终导致优越的恢复结果,无论其他人的合作水平如何.
- 当一个占主导地位的基础设施供应商对其他供应商至关重要时,合作的需要就会加剧.
- 资源的可用性和分配对恢复计划的有效性产生重大影响.
结论:
- 合作对于有效的基础设施恢复和社区性至关重要.
- 促进合作激励的政策策略可以显著改善灾难恢复.
- 游戏理论模型为复杂的基础设施网络中的决策提供了实际见解.
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