新技术,潜在的失业和"非科学经济"在2020年经济危机期间和之后
1The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Russian Foreign Trade Academy Russia.
Regional science policy & practice
|April 12, 2024
概括
数字化转型加快了自动化,冒着就业位流失的风险. 到2030年,俄罗斯将面临重大适应需求,人力资本和ICT发展将减轻风险.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 技术研究 技术研究
背景情况:
- 2020年冠状病毒大流行和经济危机加速了数字化转型,增加了对远程工作和在线服务的需求.
- 无人技术为未来的工作提供了机遇和挑战,特别是在长期就业方面.
- 该研究探讨了由于快速自动化和传统补偿机制不足而导致技术排斥的可能性.
研究的目的:
- 通过弗雷-奥斯本方法来评估俄罗斯工作自动化的可能性.
- 分析到2030年第四次工业革命对全球和俄罗斯劳动力市场的影响.
- 确定减轻技术失业风险的因素,并提出政策建议.
主要方法:
- 应用国际可比的Frey-Osborne方法来估计俄罗斯各个职业的自动化概率.
- 开发和使用计量经济学模型来识别降低风险的因素.
- 在加速技术变革的背景下,分析劳动力市场适应机制.
主要成果:
- 不到三分之一的俄罗斯员工在高自动化概率的职业中,但许多常规工作在2030年之前需要适应.
- 专注于制造业的地区和传统服务更容易受到自动化和隔离措施的影响.
- 加快的自动化可能会超过再培训和新就业机会的创造,导致潜在的技术排斥.
结论:
- 人力资本集中,有利的商业环境,高生活质量和ICT发展是减少技术排斥风险的关键因素.
- 拥有强大的数字经济和多样化的劳动力市场的地区表现出较低的自动化风险.
- 建议以重点关注这些已识别的因素的政策干预措施来管理向自动化经济的过渡.
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