一个供应链决策模型,用于资源共享,并适用于用于应对COVID-19的呼吸机分配
Sanjay Mehrotra1, Hamed Rahimian1, Masoud Barah1
1Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences Northwestern University Evanston Illinois USA.
概括
一个随机模型优化了流行病资源分配,显示FEMA.
科学领域:
- 运营研究 运营研究
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 流行病需要有效地分配关键资源,如呼吸机.
- 地区和时间的需求变化使资源管理复杂化.
- 州际资源共享可以缓解短缺,但需要不利于风险的条件.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个随机优化模型,用于流行病期间的关键资源配置.
- 分析FEMA在COVID-19大流行期间向美国各州分配的呼吸机库存.
- 评估资源共享和风险回避对满足需求的影响.
主要方法:
- 随机优化建模. 随机优化建模.
- 模拟通风机需求和分配场景.
- 在不利于风险的条件下分析资源共享策略.
主要成果:
- 联邦紧急事务管理局的2万台呼吸机库存如果为非COVID-19患者保留<60%,就足够了.
- 如果超过75%的呼吸机为非COVID-19患者预留,预计会出现短缺.
- 资源共享和早期生产加快大大减少了潜在的短缺.
结论:
- 一个中央机构 (FEMA) 可以通过协调资源共享来提高效率.
- 管理国家对风险的厌恶会提高资源系统的效率.
- 尽早提高生产速度对于缓解呼吸机短缺至关重要.
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