智利各地区COVID-19对就业的影响:转录成本函数的应用
Félix Modrego1, Andrea Canales1,2, Héctor Bahamonde1
1Institute of Social Sciences Universidad de O'Higgins Rancagua Chile.
概括
这项研究预测,由于COVID-19,智利地区的就业位将大幅减少,估计将有超过70万个失业位. 影响因地区而异,需要有针对性的经济和社会保护政策.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 区域科学 地区科学
- 公共政策 公共政策
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,COVID-19大流行带来了前所未有的经济挑战.
- 了解区域就业影响对于有效的政策响应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测COVID-19在智利的初步区域就业影响.
- 为了估计不同情景和地区的失业情况.
主要方法:
- 使用了2013-2018年期间的汇总转录成本函数.
- 在替代场景下对产品损失的综合专家预测.
主要成果:
- 估计智利各地区的平均失业人数为705,000人.
- 展示了影响的空间异质性,从区域就业的1.5%到13.6%.
- 乐观和悲观的情景分别预计将有577,000个和870,000个失业位.
结论:
- 据估计,在所有地区和场景中,失业率很大.
- 调查结果强调,需要立即广泛实施保护就业和生产的倡议.
- 为制定针对区域的社会保护和经济刺激政策提供信息.
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