在封锁条件下测量实际消费和消费者价格指数偏差
W Erwin Diewert1,2,3, Kevin J Fox2
1University of British Columbia.
概括
冠状病毒大流行扰乱了经济统计数据,导致消费者价格指数 (CPI) 计算中的偏差. 在封锁期间,持续的消费者支出调查对于准确的CPI至关重要.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 公共政策 公共政策
背景情况:
- 由于COVID-19的流行,全球范围内的商品和服务普遍无法获得.
- 这种前所未有的情况对决策至关重要的经济统计数据的准确性产生了重大影响.
- 现有的经济数据收集方法不足以应对当前的全球挑战.
研究的目的:
- 评估大流行对经济统计数据的影响.
- 确定目前计算消费者价格指数 (CPI) 和实际消费的方法中的偏差.
- 在封锁期间提出准确经济数据收集的新方法.
主要方法:
- 对国际组织 (国际货币基金组织,欧盟统计局,联合国) 对统计局的现有建议进行分析.
- 评估这些建议对消费者价格指数 (CPI) 和实际消费的影响.
- 持续的消费者支出调查的概念化.
主要成果:
- 目前的建议导致消费者价格指数 (CPI) 的下行偏差.
- 现有的方法导致实际消费指标的上升偏差.
- 疫情对数据可用性的影响需要新的方法.
结论:
- 在大流行引起的封锁期间,CPI计算的既定方法是不够的.
- 为了产生有意义的CPI,需要进行持续的消费者支出调查.
- 准确的经济统计需要在危机期间适应方法.
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