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COVID-19对全球价值链的影响:破坏非必需品生产
Joao-Pedro Ferreira1, Pedro Ramos2, Eduardo Barata2
1Food and Resource Economics Department, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences University of Florida Florida USA.
概括
这就是COVID-19大流行.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 供应链管理 供应链管理
背景情况:
- 针对COVID-19的公共卫生措施扰乱了非必需业务.
- 经济冲击通过全球价值链传播.
- 了解相互依存关系对于评估经济影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析对非必需商品和服务需求减少对全球经济的影响.
- 量化对生产,国际贸易和国家经济的影响.
- 突出全球价值链在经济弹性中的作用.
主要方法:
- 利用世界输入输出数据库来绘制行业和国家相互依存的地图.
- 模拟了全球对非必需商品和服务需求的均50%的下降.
- 评估对生产,贸易和国家GDP的不对称影响.
主要成果:
- 非基本需求下降50%可能会使全球GDP下降23%.
- 国际贸易可能下降近30%,影响原材料和制造业.
- 中国,印度尼西亚和一些欧洲国家面临着不成比例地更大的相对影响.
结论:
- COVID-19的经济影响超出了直接影响,由全球价值链放大.
- 国际贸易联系显著影响大流行病的更广泛的经济后果.
- 政策应对应考虑全球经济的相互联系.
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