通过职业视角看流行病
Anand Chopra1, Michael B Devereux2, Amartya Lahiri3
1Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur.
概括
在大流行期间选择在家工作的个人显著降低了感染率,但也减少了消费. 这种自我隔离行为,即使没有锁定,也会影响经济,扩大消费不平等.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 宏观经济学 宏观经济学
- 劳动经济学 劳动经济学
背景情况:
- COVID-19大流行突出了公共卫生和经济活动之间的相互作用.
- 了解个人对感染风险的反应选择对于政策至关重要.
- 职业差异显著影响流行病的结果.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个宏观流行病模型,结合内生在家工作决策.
- 分析大流行病的宏观经济和分布后果.
- 用职业数据评估特定行业关闭的影响.
主要方法:
- 用异质代理构建一个一般平衡模型.
- 将模型与不列颠哥伦比亚的数据进行校准.
- 在各种场景下模拟流行病的演变和经济影响.
主要成果:
- 内源性自我隔离可以将感染率的高峰降低2%,但可以降低低谷部消费率的4%.
- 职业替代容易和感染风险影响流行病的动态.
- 该模型复制了COVID-19期间观察到的消费不平等的扩大.
结论:
- 个人自我隔离的决定是流行病管理的关键因素.
- 流行病政策必须考虑健康和经济影响.
- 经济模型可以阐明传染病爆发的分布效应.
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