量化COVID-19政策对加拿大各省的经济影响 (几乎) 实时
Christopher Cotton1, Bahman Kashi1, Huw Lloyd-Ellis1
1Queen's University.
The Canadian journal of economics. Revue canadienne d'economique
|April 12, 2024
概括
加拿大各省可以通过实施积极的封锁和重新开放战略来减少COVID-19的长期经济损害. 这种方法,尽管短期成本,减轻未来的经济损失,避免重复封锁.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 由于COVID-19大流行,需要采取前所未有的公共卫生干预措施,包括封锁和分阶段重新开放.
- 加拿大各省实施了不同的战略,导致了不同的经济后果.
- 及时的数据对于评估这些政策的经济影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一种方法来追踪和量化加拿大省级封锁和重新开放政策的经济影响.
- 在失业和生产方面估计政策响应的成本.
- 分析潜在的场景,考虑行业互补性和需求转变.
主要方法:
- 适应,校准和实施具有供应限制的动态,季节性调整的输入输出模型.
- 利用相对较短的时间滞后数据进行及时分析.
- 基于省份重新开放战略观察到的变化,量化经济影响.
主要成果:
- 估计了与加拿大各省不同封锁和重新开放策略相关的经济成本 (失去了就业和生产时间).
- 证明,尽管短期经济成本较高,但更积极的初始反应可能会导致更低的长期经济成本.
- 通过果断的政策行动,强调避免未来的封锁浪潮带来的经济效益.
结论:
- 动态输入-输出模型为评估与流行病相关政策的经济后果提供了强大的框架.
- 积极的,及时的干预可以带来更有利的长期经济结果.
- 关于封锁和重新开放的政策决定具有显著的,可量化的经济影响,这些影响因省级战略而异.
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