使用公民科学数据和机器学习模型,阐明火虫繁多的模式
Darin J McNeil1, Sarah C Goslee2, Melanie Kammerer2
1Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40506, USA.
The Science of the total environment
|April 12, 2024
概括
火种群由于息地丧失和气候变化而减少. 保护工作必须包括监测,气候变化减缓和对昆虫友好的做法,以保护这些重要昆虫.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 昆虫学 昆虫学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 昆虫种群,包括火虫 (Coleoptera: Lampyridae),面临着全球性的下降.
- 像息地丧失,杀虫剂使用和光污染等因素是可疑的威胁,但它们的大规模影响仍然未得到充分研究.
- 关于火虫种群的定量数据很少,这阻碍了有效的保护战略.
研究的目的:
- 评估各种因素对北美火种群的相对重要性.
- 通过机器学习模型识别火繁多的关键驱动因素.
- 根据环境变化,为火虫的保护策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用来自火观察计划 (2008-2016) 的超过24000项公民科学调查.
- 采用机器学习模型来分析农药,人工光,土地覆盖,土壤/地形,天气和气候的影响.
- 评估了环境变量和火虫数量之间的复杂相互作用.
主要成果:
- 烟的丰富程度受到土壤组成,气候/天气模式 (例如,生长度日) 和土地覆盖 (例如,农业,不透气覆盖) 之间的相互作用的影响.
- 息地丧失仍然是一个严重的威胁,加之是气候和天气条件的重大影响.
- 预计气候变化将改变区域对火虫种群的适宜性,这可能导致某些地区的人口减少.
结论:
- 结果支持现有关于火虫威胁的假设,特别是息地丧失,并强调气候变化是主要的,被低估的威胁.
- 未来的保护需要持续的种群监测 (例如,火观察),气候变化缓解战略,以及采用对昆虫友好的保护实践.
- 保护北美火虫种群需要采取多方面的方法,解决直接威胁和长期环境变化.
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