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用于模拟美国乳制品系统中寒冷和热应激的热指数的比较分析

E Choi¹, V Carneiro de Souza², J A Dillon³

¹Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability & Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523.

Journal of dairy science

|April 12, 2024

概括

精确的热量指数,如THIadj和CCI,可以更好地预测由于寒冷和热应激而导致的牛奶产量损失. 乳制品系统显示了适应性管理变化,随着时间的推移减少了与天气有关的风险.

科学领域:

农业科学农业科学
气候科学气候科学
动物科学动物科学

背景情况:

管理乳制品系统中的热应激对于牛奶生产至关重要.
现有的热量指数对于估计牛奶产量损失的准确性各不相同.
关于寒冷和热应激对牛奶产量的影响的大规模数据有限.

研究的目的:

为了比较分析四个热指数的表现,估计美国牛奶产量对寒冷和热应激的反应.
评估温度湿度指数 (THI),黑球湿度指数 (BGHI),调整温度湿度指数 (THIadj) 和综合气候指数 (CCI) 的准确性.

主要方法:

使用统计面板回归模型与观测和重新分析天气数据 (1981-2020).
在全国范围内比较THI,BGHI,THIadj和CCI的收益率灵敏度和统计表现.
分析的牛奶产量对一系列冷热压力的反应.

主要成果:

THIadj和CCI在解释美国州级牛奶产量变化方面表现优异.
在所有指数中,观察到牛奶产量对热应激的连续,非线性反应.
极端寒冷影响了牛奶产量,与全国极端高温相比.
在过去的二十年中,人们注意到对热应激的产量敏感度下降,这表明适应性管理.

结论:

对于模拟热应力对牛奶产量的影响,THIadj和CCI更有效.
依靠固定指数值可能不足以捕捉累积热应力.
产量敏感性的空间变化需要特定位置的管理策略.
乳业管理已经适应减轻与天气有关的风险,随着时间的推移降低产量敏感性.

关键词:

生物气候指数生物气候指数气候影响影响气候影响.牛奶产量损失牛奶产量损失热应力是一种热应力.热调节温度调节

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