通过实时数据和机器学习,预测美国的州级自杀死亡人数
Devashru Patel1, Steven A Sumner2, Daniel Bowen2
1School of Interactive Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Npj mental health research
|April 12, 2024
概括
研究人员开发了一种使用实时在线数据的深度学习模型,以估计每周的自杀数量,改善及时的公共卫生监测以预防自杀.
科学领域:
- 计算流行病学计算流行病学
- 公共卫生监督是对公共卫生的监督.
- 机器学习在卫生中的应用.
背景情况:
- 及时的州级自杀趋势数据对公共卫生至关重要,但国家报告系统存在重大延误.
- 现有的追踪自杀率的方法缺乏实时能力,阻碍了快速反应和有针对性的预防工作.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种深度学习方法,以使用实时数据源估计每周州级自杀人数.
- 与传统的自回归模型相比,评估模型的准确性.
主要方法:
- 利用长期短期记忆 (LSTM) 神经网络来整合来自在线查,搜索趋势,社交媒体和急诊室访问的实时数据.
- 经过训练并对来自四个参与的美国州的数据进行模型验证.
主要成果:
- 该LSTM模型准确地估计了四个州的州特定自杀率,百分比错误范围从-2.77%到-5.32%.
- 深度学习方法在与仅依赖历史死亡数据的传统自回归模型相比,表现优越.
结论:
- 这种基于深度学习的方法为生成及时,州级自杀估计提供了一个有希望的方法.
- 实时数据集成可以显著提高自杀监测,使更有效和地理定制的预防策略.
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