失踪的计算:在生态研究中使用 (或不使用) 层次模型
Alexej P K Sirén1, Juliana Berube2, Laurence A Clarfeld3
1Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, USA; Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA; Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, USA.
Ticks and tick-borne diseases
|April 13, 2024
概括
大多数研究都低估了的丰富性,因为它们没有考虑到不完美的检测. 使用层次模型 (HMs) 提高了估计种群和疾病传播的准确性.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 寄生虫学的寄生虫学
背景情况:
- 牛 (硬) 通过疾病传播和寄生影响生态系统和健康.
- 种群受到环境因素,宿主可用性和景观特征的影响.
- 当前的实地方法往往低估了的数量,可能会影响研究结果.
研究的目的:
- 审查子研究模型数据的方法,专注于对不完美的检测进行核算.
- 评估不完善检测对估计发生率和丰度的影响.
- 将层次模型 (HM) 与用于数据分析的常见统计方法进行比较.
主要方法:
- 412个已发表的研究的描述性综述.
- 使用层次模型 (HM) 分析模拟和实证数据.
- 将HM与非等级模型 (如ANOVA) 的比较.
主要成果:
- 只有1%的审查研究明确解释了不完善的检测.
- 非层次模型产生了偏见的 abundance的低估值.
- 由于无法建模检测概率,因此混了发生率和丰度的估计.
结论:
- 精确建模数据需要考虑不完美的检测.
- 层次模型提供了更可靠的虫种群和分布的估计.
- 改进的建模对于了解传播疾病和宿主寄生虫动态至关重要.
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