随着免疫力逐渐减弱的个体异质性的SIRS流行病
Mohamed El Khalifi1, Tom Britton2
1Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences Dhar El Mahraz, Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University, Fez, 300 50, Morocco; Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 106 91, Sweden.
Journal of theoretical biology
|April 13, 2024
概括
保持群体免疫力需要更频繁的接种疫苗,当个体免疫力逐渐和不可预测地减弱时. 最现实的情况是,没有观察到下降率,需要比更简单的模型建议的疫苗要多得多.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 免疫学 免疫学 免疫学
背景情况:
- 免疫力减弱是传染病动态的一个关键因素.
- 免疫力下降率的个体差异可能会影响流行病控制策略.
- 群体免疫力依赖于通过疫苗接种在人口层面持续的保护.
研究的目的:
- 分析一种扩展的SIRS流行病模型,其免疫力逐渐,异质地减弱.
- 为知情和不知情的情景推导和比较最佳的疫苗接种政策.
- 根据不同的衰退假设,评估群体免疫的疫苗需求.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个扩展的SIRS (易感-感染-恢复-易感) 流行病模型.
- 与个体异质性相结合的逐渐,指数级减弱的免疫力.
- 针对已知情况 (已知下降率) 和未知情况 (未知下降率) 的模拟疫苗接种方案.
- 与同质衰减和经典SIRS模型进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 经典的SIRS模型需要最少的疫苗,然后是同质的逐渐衰退,然后是知情的异质衰退.
- 不知情的异质衰减场景需要为群体免疫提供最多的疫苗.
- 对于COVID-19的参数,不知情的异质衰减需要每4.4个月接种一次疫苗,而对于经典的SIRS则需要15个月.
结论:
- 逐渐的,异质的免疫力与未观察到的个体率下降是保持群体免疫力的最苛刻的场景.
- 疫苗接种策略必须考虑到免疫力减弱的个体变异性,以有效控制流行病.
- 这些发现凸显了简化模型在预测真实世界疫苗接种需求方面的不足.
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