在世界范围内发现农业灾害脆弱性的时空空间检测以及对发展适应气候变化的农业发展的影响
Wenjing Cheng1, Yuheng Li1, Wenjie Zuo2
1Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
The Science of the total environment
|April 13, 2024
概括
全球农业对干旱和洪水的脆弱性较低,因为暴露率降低,适应性更好. 然而,美国,中国和俄罗斯的特定地区面临更高的风险,需要量身定制的气候弹性战略.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 灾害风险评估 灾害风险评估
背景情况:
- 全球农业受到干旱和洪水灾害的重大影响.
- 建立适应气候变化的农业需要减少对极端天气事件的脆弱性.
研究的目的:
- 调查2003年至2019年全球农业对干旱和洪水的脆弱性的时空变化.
- 确定关键驱动因素和脆弱地区,以制定适应性战略.
主要方法:
- 农业脆弱性指标的时空空间分析.
- 对干旱和洪水的暴露,适应能力和敏感性的评估.
- 基于综合风险评估确定高风险地区.
主要成果:
- 全球农业对干旱和洪水的脆弱性通常很低,这是由于暴露率下降和适应能力增加所致.
- 美国北部,中国东北部和俄罗斯-哈萨克斯坦边境被确定为高度脆弱的地区.
- 时空降水不匹配是洪水和干旱的主要原因;加强适应减轻了不良影响.
结论:
- 定制的政策和适应性战略对于提高农业对气候变化的适应性至关重要.
- 了解区域脆弱性和驱动因素是有效减少农业灾害风险的关键.
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