高级证据和自我定位的动态:基于精度的校准论证
1Department of Philosophy (KGW), University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.
概括
当面对更高层次的证据时,代理人应该对信念进行校准,这与贝叶斯规范要求坚定不移的说法相反. 校准主义与一般化的贝叶斯方法保持一致,提供了一个更准确的信念更新策略.
科学领域:
- 认识论的认识论学.
- 决策理论 决策理论
- 贝叶斯概率是贝叶斯的概率.
背景情况:
- 校准原则建议根据错误推理的证据调整信念.
- 这种校准论文经常被认为与贝叶斯主义信仰更新相冲突,贝叶斯主义信仰更新,据说要求坚定不移.
- 坚定不移意味着,尽管对推理过程有更高层次的证据,但仍然保持一级信念.
研究的目的:
- 为了证明校准主义与贝叶斯式信念更新方法的兼容性.
- 挑战贝叶斯代理人在遇到更高阶证据时必须保持坚定不移的观念.
- 认为校准,而不是稳定性,最大限度地提高了预期的准确性.
主要方法:
- 激励自我定位信念的时间演变的最小约束.
- 证明校准主义与遵守这一约束的一般化贝叶斯框架的兼容性.
- 分析更高阶证据对预期准确性的影响.
主要成果:
- 校准主义与一般化的贝叶斯方法相兼容,这些方法满足了对信仰进化的确定约束.
- 贝叶斯规范在面对更高阶证据时需要坚定不移的说法是不正确的.
- 当考虑更高阶证据时,保持坚定不移并不能最大限度地提高预期的准确性.
结论:
- 校准主义和贝叶斯主义可以调和,特别是在更高阶证据方面.
- 代理人可以而且应该校准他们的信念,即使是在贝叶斯框架内.
- 校准提供了一种更准确的方法来修改信念,而不是当面对关于推理质量的证据时坚定不移.
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