估计非最佳温度对死亡率的影响:加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的一项研究,2001-2021年
Rudra K Shrestha1,2, Ioana Sevcenco1, Priscila Casari1
1Office of the Provincial Health Officer, Ministry of Health, Government of British Columbia, Victoria, BC, Canada.
Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.)
|April 15, 2024
概括
在2001-2021年期间,不理想的温度导致了不列颠哥伦比亚省 (BC) 7%以上的死亡,主要是由于寒冷. 极端高温构成了日益增长的未来风险,突出了BC需要气候适应战略的需要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 全球研究估计,每年有超过510万人死于非最佳温度,但往往缺乏区域特异性.
- 之前在不列颠哥伦比亚省 (BC) 对非最佳温度相关死亡率的研究是不完整的或地理上有限的.
- 这项研究解决了在不列颠哥伦比亚省 (BC) 需要全面,区域特定的死亡率估计的需求.
研究的目的:
- 估计BC所有五个区域卫生当局 (RHA) 中因非最佳温度而导致的死亡人数.
- 分析2001年至2021年的温度与死亡率的关联.
- 为公共卫生规划和气候变化适应提供详细数据.
主要方法:
- 使用分布式滞后非线性建模 (DLNM) 进行温度与死亡率的关联.
- 雇佣的每日所有原因死亡数据和高分辨率 (1x1公里) 格式的每日平均温度数据.
- 使用2021 BC热圆顶事件和验尸官确认的数据验证了模型性能.
主要成果:
- 据估计,7.17%的BC死亡 (2001-2021) 与非最佳温度有关,寒冷是主要的驱动因素.
- 每10万人口/年可归因的死亡率:中度寒冷 (47.04),中度热 (0.94),极度寒冷 (2.88),极度热 (3.10).
- 在BC的RHA中观察到温度归因死亡的显著空间变化.
结论:
- 在研究期间,较温和的非最佳温度比极端温度对死亡率的贡献更大.
- 虽然极端温度的影响较小,但它们对死亡率的贡献在未来可能会增加.
- 调查结果强调了在BC公共卫生战略中解决寒冷和热风险的重要性.
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