预测COVID-19对欧盟国家医生供应的早期影响
Peter Klimek1,2, Katharina Ledebur1,2, Michael Gyimesi
1Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria, Vienna, Austria.
International journal of health policy and management
|April 15, 2024
概括
许多欧洲国家面临着日益减少的全科医生供应和日益增加的专家人数,COVID-19的影响有限. 新模型对于健康工作人员做出明智决策至关重要.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 医疗卫生工作人员规划规划
背景情况:
- 在许多国家,事先存在的卫生工作人员挑战,包括退休和资源分配不当.
- 由于数据要求或过度简化,目前定量模型的局限性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的人口动态和库存流量一致的模型,用于医生供应预测.
- 评估到2040年在21个欧洲国家未来的医生供应,考虑到人口变化和COVID-19的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用公开可用的时间序列数据进行模型校准.
- 应用一种复杂的模型,能够捕捉动态行为变化和流行病学冲击.
- 预测全科医生和专科医生供应,并分析COVID-19的影响.
主要成果:
- 在许多欧洲国家观察到通用医生密度下降和专家密度增加的趋势.
- 南欧和东欧地区人口负增长加剧了专业趋势.
- COVID-19对整体医生供应趋势的有限预测影响.
结论:
- 该研究强调了跨专业和部门的医生分配的严重不平衡.
- 制定决策工具对于管理和优化卫生工作人员至关重要.
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