美国COVID-19确诊病例是否将达到300万? 使用SutteARIMA方法进行预测方法
1Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Negeri Makassar, Indonesia.
Current research in behavioral sciences
|April 15, 2024
概括
使用SutteARIMA预测美国的COVID-19病例预测到2020年6月,预计将有200万个确诊病例. 该方法的准确性很高,预测了政策决策的未来案例数.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 准确预测COVID-19病例对于美国的政策决策至关重要.
- 了解疾病轨迹有助于资源分配和干预策略.
研究的目的:
- 为了预测美国的COVID-19确诊病例.
- 评估SutteARIMA方法在预测病例数量的准确性.
主要方法:
- 利用了2020年2月15日至7月2日的Worldometer数据.
- 雇员SutteARIMA用于预测和MAPE用于准确性评估.
- 数据调整于2020年6月26日至7月2日进行.
主要成果:
- 据SutteARIMA预测,到2020年7月2日,预计将有2,803,729例病例.
- 该模型在2020年6月26日至7月2日期间实现了0.539%的准确性 (MAPE).
- 该研究确定了2020年6月初为达到200万确诊病例的预测期.
结论:
- 苏特ARIMA方法准确预测了美国的COVID-19确诊病例.
- 该模型的预测通过预测疾病进展来支持政策制定.
- 预测到2020年6月初的200万例病例是一个关键的发现.
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